Interest Rates, China Talks: 5 Macro Moves That Could Move Markets This Week

With the Government shutdown in progress, macroeconomic updates have been few and far between. Many of the agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data, like the BLS and the BEA, are directly affected by the shutdown. 

Despite that, investors looking to follow macro reports can still get excited for what’s to come in the last week of October. With markets like crypto and stock starting the week with optimism after reports of a possible truce between the U.S. and China, these upcoming data releases could carry significant influence on market sentiment for the remainder of the year. 

Consumer Confidence (Tuesday)

On this Tuesday, the Conference Board will release the latest Consumer Confidence print, giving us an insight into the mindset of the average American consumer. This report is relevant because it reflects how likely Americans are to spend, borrow, and invest. 

Confidence has been on the decline since July, and has failed to break past the 100 level since February. In a year plagued with as many moments of excitement as uncertainty, this report could serve as a barometer for how resilient consumer sentiment remains heading into the final stretch of 2025.

Consumer confidence has seen a steady decline since July, and the metric has failed to break past the 100 level since February. n a year plagued with as many moments of excitement as uncertainty, this report could serve as a barometer for how resilient consumer sentiment remains heading into the final stretch of 2025.

Analysts anticipate a Consumer Confidence reading of 93.9, down from the last print of 94.2.

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Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday)

On October 29, the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to lower interest rates to 4.00-4.25%, marking the second consecutive interest rate slash. 

Hesitant about how Trump’s tariffs could affect American inflation, Jerome Powell held on as long as he could to lower rates this year. The driving factor behind this policy shift, however, was the labor market’s unexpected slowdown.

Inflation isn’t exactly cooling. Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to exert upward pressure on prices, even if prints like the CPI are coming in at a slower growth than expected. 

Even then, the Fed went down the monetary easing path to prevent a deeper economic deceleration and stop jobs and payrolls from stalling. Prediction tools like the CME’s FedWatch give it a near 98% likelihood of a 0.25% cut this Wednesday. This would put the American interest rate at its lowest point since November 2022.

For crypto, lower interest rates are generally seen as bullish. With easier access to capital and a weaker demand for bonds, investors tend to inject liquidity into risky markets like crypto and stocks, looking for greater financial rewards. 

Trump and Xi Get-Together (Thursday)

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on Thursday. This will be their first in-person meeting since 2019, and the timing of it couldn't have been better. Markets crashed on October 10 as Trump announced an additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, in retaliation for China's grasp on rare earth products. 

This is likely the most impactful event of the week for crypto, as a potential truce between the two largest economies in the world could erase risk-off sentiment, sending investors away from gold and back to digital assets. Trump remains optimistic that the two parties will reach an agreement, but the stakes remain very high. 

GDP Update (Thursday)

On that same date, the BEA will give us the first estimate of America's Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter of 2025. After a strong growth in Q2, the Q3 GDP is likely to completely put past us any chance of a recession for the U.S in 2025. 

Forecasts anticipate another 3% growth in Q3's GDP, as consumer spending likely remains strong after a strong performance in Q2. 

PCE Report (Friday)

To close off the week, the Core PCE Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, is dropping on Friday. This print will give us an insight into how prices reacted to lower interest rates in September. 

PCE inflation remained steady at a 0.2% growth at the latest two prints, and analysts forecast that it will remain as such in this upcoming report. Inflation rising slower-than-expected has been the norm as of late, which has given the Fed some breathing room to pursue monetary easing without stoking fears of runaway prices.